With the checkered waved at Martinsville Statio—I mean Speedway, we finally know who the final four drivers in the championship race are. 

For the first time in two seasons, Team Penske will miss the grand finale and it’ll be down to Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. With that being said, let’s dive into the four drivers eyeing for a shot to etch their name in Cup Series history. 

Denny Hamlin 

Hamlin’s championship four appearance comes off the back of a dominant Las Vegas performance that carried a heap of emotion. At 44, Hamlin’s chances of finding Cup Championship glory grow ever thinner, but this year seems more palpable than ever. 

With his father going through a hard illness, Hamlin’s postseason has meant more. After his Vegas win, he was receiving cheers and visibly emotional. The veteran wants it for reasons beyond himself this season, and barring circumstances out of his control, he’s going to put himself in the right position. 

For the 60 time winner, two of those being at Phoenix, it feels like now or never. That isn’t true after the extension he signed of course, but if he can’t get it done now, then when? 

Chase Briscoe

In his inaugural season at Joe Gibbs Racing, Chase Briscoe has proven why he deserved to take over the longstanding #19 car. Through long season consistency and an absolute explosion in the playoffs, Briscoe has found himself one race away from adding to a championship resume he started in 2016 in ARCA. 

The 19 team punched their ticket into the playoffs at Pocono in June, and started a run of consistency that Jack & I saw akin to that of Ryan Newman. Three poles total, leading to six on the season, put his car in winning position all season. 

The consistency up front led to massive playoff wins at Darlington and Talladega, putting him where he is now. 

Briscoe has proven in every series before Cup that he can etch his name into championship gold, and at a track he got his first win at, it’s possible he finishes the deal. 

William Byron

The NASCAR 25 cover boy is gunning to prove to everyone why he earned that 100 overall rating in the video game. 

After winning the Daytona 500, the 24 team kept up front but couldn’t get back to victory lane until August 3rd at Iowa. However Byron and company have seemed to turn it up at the right time 

Mr. Consistency benefitted from a single groove Martinsville just this past afternoon and led laps all day, before taking it to the bumper of Ryan Blaney in an “old school” move to win. 

It seems Byron keeps winning when it matters, despite the long stretches in victory lane appearances. We know by now that winning when it matters is all this system wants from a driver, so there’s no doubt Byron can break the video game cover curse and capture his first Cup championship at Phoenix. 

Kyle Larson 

The only driver out of the four who’s hoisted the Bill France Cup would be the Elk Grove native Kyle Larson, who as usual finds himself in the right spot after a season of dominant moments and head scratchers. 

The #5 team started 2025 with a spring reminiscent of 2021, capturing three wins in the same amount of months. Everyone pegged Larson to find himself in the final four after that sort of stretch, but without another win? That’s a different story. 

Larson will need to recapture the essence of his last title run, where he swept the series’ visits to Phoenix en route to one of the most dominant titles in recent memory. 

His third place finish in spring, right behind fellow final four member Hamlin, is a good sign for

his chances next week. 

Predictions 

Cam: I still don’t like this format, and it’s all the more painful when the racing product in the penultimate race is what it was today. However, not having a Penske car in the mix changes things for the final four this year. 

With three of the four drivers not having a championship to their name, it’ll be an interesting watch next week, even if the racing product is less than stellar. 

I know everyone would probably lean towards Hamlin finally making history this weekend, but I just don’t know. Whatever demon that has plagued him in the championship race has yet to lose, and I don’t know if it will this weekend. 

On the contrary, his teammate Chase Briscoe has reached a new level in the playoffs, and is on a warpath that I think will prove him a serious championship threat for years to come. 

Give me Chase Briscoe as the 2025 Cup Series Champion.

Jack: I concur with you on hating the format, today’s race had me yearning for a snooze more than once. Two of JGR’s playoff drivers engines blew up and because of the format it didn’t even matter, but I digress.

My hate for HMS is well documented and I’ll partially stick with that reputation. There’s little chance that Kyle Larson will win the championship purely because of his raw speed, I’ve come to accept he’s got the talent to do it. Even today at a short track Larson was maybe the second or third best HMS car? He’ll need more than that to get by Byron or the two Gibbs boys.

As much as I’ll be rooting for Briscoe to win his first championship because I love underdogs, he just feels so undeserving. The driver of the #19 has shown fantastic growth, but I don’t think it’s quite his time yet.

I believe Byron should enter as the favorite, he’s a master of the Next Gen car’s quirks and he’s had profound success because of that. Yet I can’t get the idea of Hamlin sneaking in a championship in the format he loathes as one last F-U to NASCAR, it would bring joy to the most cynical parts of myself.

Give me Denny Hamlin to become the 2025 Cup Series Champion.